Crude sold off in the overnight session and I was bullish coming into the morning session. I felt it could make it to the 99.46 VPOC from last Tuesday, but the lower VPOC was weighing on my mind as well, which was still untouched and resting at 97.68. Tight trading range today. Was happy to get what I got today.
Crude was still putting in higher highs after the recent low of 95.95 on Thursday. Today, it kept in a relatively tight 1.04 range, which is on the low side for crude. I was happy with all of my entries and exits, except for the exit on Trade No.3, which was a short. I should have bailed out at 97.50 or less after seeing that level continuously getting pegged, with no good downturn.
Crude sold off $1.74 from its overnight session high of 97.69 to 95.95 this morning and formed a double bottom there. I was not expecting support at 95.95, so the first trade was a short, which failed. After seeing the double bottom and some structure build, I became bullish.
Trade No.1, 9:23AM: Short @ 96.19, Cover @ 96.29…..10 tick loss
Trade No.2, 10:40AM: Long @96.11 at the 62% fib retracement, Sold half @ 96.26…..15 tick gain, Sold half @ 96.32 when trailing stop was hit…..21 tick gain
I really had that trailing stop too tight. I could see that it was forming another Value Area instead of zooming straight up and should have put the trailing stop under 96.24. I need to give these more breathing room so the bigger moves can be captured on the remaining half. ANOTHER LESSON LEARNED TODAY.
Crude got decimated overnight and in the European session, gapping down at the pit open nearly $2.00 from the prior close. It stabilized off the 96.20 area. After a failed short attempt, I was looking to get long.
Trade No.1, 9:22AM: Short @ 96.40, Cover @ 96.46…..6 tick loss
Trade No.2, 9:36AM: Long @ 96.47, Sell @ 96.47…..breakeven
Trade No.3, 9:49AM: Long @ 96.39, Sell half @ 96.54…..16 tick gain, Sell half @ 96.39…..breakeven
Trade No.4, 11:14AM: I chased this and was punished for it…..Long @ 96.43, Sell @ 96.31…..12 tick loss
Trade No.5, 11:17AM: After seeing the nice bounce off support, went long again and this one paid off very nicely…..Long @ 96.37, Sell half @ 96.57…..20 tick gain, Sell half as it came into early morning resistance @ 97.09…..72 tick gain
Trade No.6, 1:06PM: After a strong surge up, went long on a retracement to support, Long @ 96.95, Sell half @ 97.05…..10 tick gain, Trailing stop hit on half @ 97.21…..26 tick gain
After basing nicely along the lower trend line of 60 minute chart channel, crude looked poised for a nice rally, which it did get briefly this morning. It rallied to just beyond the virgin POC from yesterday, 100.19, and then sold off for the rest of the day.
Trade No.1, 9:15AM: Long @ 99.61 on a pullback to the 62% retracement, sold @ 99.53…..8 tick loss
Trade No.2, 9:27AM: Short @ 99.78, covered @ 99.88…..10 tick loss
Trade No.3, 9:37AM: After taking out the day’s high, I was convinced it wanted to go higher, so went long @ 99.68 at 62% retracement, sold half @ 99.90…..22 tick gain, sold half @ 100.24…..56 tick gain
Trade No.3, 11:54AM: Crude sold off fast until it got a bounce off 98.67. Shorted at the low volume node and overnight support. Short @ 99.27, covered half @ 99.17…..10 tick gain, covered half @ 99.05…..22 tick gain.
Crude sold off hard in the pre-market session, breaking Tuesday’s low, so I came into the morning with a bearish bias. As crude is famous for doing, it will change on a dime and do the exact opposite of what seems logical. It ended up going on a major rip up today, with four major buying waves and a $2.22 range. I made a total of 5 trades today. I was happy with four of them, even though all of those four were not profitable, and then one bonehead trade.
Trade No.1, 10:21AM: Short @ 101.78, Cover @ 101.77…..1 tick gain. It was consolidating and not going down like I wanted. I gave it enough time and then bailed out.
Trade No.2, 11:35AM: I had wanted in long earlier, but the buying was so intense, I saw no place to get long. Looking back, I should have been watching my tick chart. When crude is ripping up, its easier to spot the support zones with them. I was beginning to think I was not going to be able to get in. Then crude sold off from its 102.48 intermediate high, and I entered long @ 102.03 at the hvn. 102.23 was my target, but when it was stalling at the lvn and down trend line, I took profits at 102.15…..12 tick gain.
Trade No.3, 1:40PM: This was my bonehead trade of the day. I “thought” the top was in and it was headed down. A bonehead play since there was no indication that it was losing steam. I know better than to do this and got my shorting fingers slapped. Short @ 102.74, Covered @ 102.82…..8 tick loss
Trade No.4, 1:51PM: Well, if it ain’t going down, its probably going up more, so I bought at support. This time, it really did lose steam and I was stopped out for a loss. Long @ 102.74, Sell @ 102.63…..11 tick loss
Trade No.5: 2:14PM: After 4 major surges up today, at hourly chart resistance and evidence that it had lost steam, I shorted after seeing the bounce off of lower time frame resistance at 102.76 area. Short @ 102.70, Cover @ 102.42…..28 tick gain